Weighted pipeline

The pipeline counted honestly. Instead of adding up the full value of every open conversation as if all of them will close, you weight each one by how likely it is at its current stage: a first talk is worth a fraction of a signed deal, a diagnostic-in-progress much more. The weighted total is a realistic forecast rather than a wish. From it you state two numbers, always both: your commit (what you’d bet your own rent on) and your best case (if everything breaks right). A forecast that’s a single confident number is hope wearing a math costume.

Source: Standard revenue-operations forecasting practice — probability-adjusting each opportunity by pipeline stage; no single owner. Winning by Design teaches the underlying architecture of forecasting from per-stage conversion rates and trend lines. Sourced honestly as common practice.

First used in: 3.6 · Pipeline math & forecasting