Pipeline math & forecasting

ExpertDuration ~15 min video segment + 11 min readTools The coverage board (from Lesson 1.7), A doc or sheet for the three numbers

The big idea: you don’t forecast the year by hoping — you read it off the board the way a forecaster reads a barometer, so the conversations you can see, weighted by how likely each one is, tell you whether “two a month” is actually happening or just wished for.

The analogy

A weather forecaster never promises rain. She reads her instruments, sees the pressure dropping, and states a probability. Seventy percent chance by evening. She’s not being evasive. She’s being honest about a system she can measure but not command.

Now picture two people predicting tomorrow’s weather. The amateur walks outside, feels the air, and says “looks like it’ll hold.” The professional reads the barometer. When the pressure falls, she knows what’s coming before the sky shows it, because she’s forecasting from an instrument instead of from a feeling.

Your pipeline works the same way. Amateurs forecast revenue from hope, from how the last good conversation felt. Professionals forecast from the board, from readings taken off deals they can actually see. Your coverage board is the barometer. This lesson is learning to read it.

Watch

Segment: 25:00–40:00 — the growth-formula walkthrough, from visitors through conversion rates to matured revenuewatch full video

Watch for: Watch how van der Kooij refuses to forecast from a single hopeful number. He builds the whole thing up from conversion rates at each stage, and then makes the point that matters most for you: the true growth formula follows the trend line, not last week's mood. If the average is falling, an optimistic forecast is a lie the math already caught. That's forecasting from the barometer, not the sky.

How it works

Three instruments, and you only need three.

The first is pipeline coverage ratio. Take the gap between where you are and your target for the year, then ask how much live, qualified pipeline sits on the board against it. If you need to close a given amount and you have exactly that amount in open conversations, you will miss, because conversations fall away, stall, and say no. So the working rule is coverage of roughly three to four times the gap. If the target gap is one dollar of new revenue, you want three to four dollars of real, qualified pipeline pointed at it. Under three times, you don’t have a forecasting problem. You have a not-enough-conversations problem, and no spreadsheet fixes that.

The second instrument is sales velocity — the one reading that tells you how fast money actually moves. It’s built from four things multiplied and then divided: the number of live qualified conversations, times the average deal value, times your win rate, divided by how long a deal takes to close. You don’t need to compute it to four decimals. You need to know what moves it. More conversations, bigger deals, a higher win rate all speed money up; a longer cycle slows it down. When Richard asks “why is the year slow,” velocity names the culprit precisely instead of vaguely.

The third is weighted pipeline, and it’s how you stay honest. Not every conversation on the board is equally likely to close, so you don’t count them at face value. You weight each one by its stage: a first talk is worth a fraction of a signed deal, a diagnostic-in-progress is worth much more. Add up the weighted values and you get a realistic number instead of a fantasy sum of everything that could theoretically happen. From that you state two forecasts, always both: your commit, the number you’d bet your own rent on, and your best case, what happens if everything breaks right. A forecast that’s a single confident number is the amateur feeling the air.

Here’s why all this matters for a two-person shop, and it’s not bureaucracy. The board is what turns “two warm conversations a month” from a nice aspiration into a hard requirement you can prove or disprove on any given week. Run the coverage math against the year’s target and it spits out how many qualified conversations the year actually needs. Divide by the months and you land back at roughly two a month. That’s not a slogan someone picked. It’s the output of the barometer. And when coverage reads thin, the board tells you the only lever that works: not more machine, not another asset, but more of the conversation-causes you learned to build across this whole course.

One caution the video makes well: forecast from the trend, not the last good day. One strong conversation doesn’t move the year. The rolling average does. If your qualified-conversation count is drifting down, an optimistic forecast is a story the numbers have already contradicted.

The pattern

Forecast from the board, never from hope. 3x coverage or say so. Keep enough qualified pipeline to cover the gap several times over, because most of it falls away. Read velocity to know how fast money moves and what’s slowing it. Weight the board and state two numbers, commit and best case. When coverage is thin, the only honest fix is more conversations.

The receipts (evidence, if you want it)

• Pipeline coverage of roughly 3–4x the gap, sales velocity as (opportunities × average deal value × win rate) ÷ cycle length, and weighted (probability-adjusted) pipeline are standard revenue-operations practice — no single owner; treat as the field’s common toolkit, sourced honestly rather than attributed to one guru.
• Winning by Design teaches the underlying revenue architecture — building forecasts up from per-stage conversion rates and following the trend line rather than a hopeful point estimate: the workshop embedded above and the Growth Architecture session (Dpneh9Ges0o) — PRACTITIONER (a working operator’s framework, not an independent study).
• The 4-clients-a-year math that resolves to ~2 qualified conversations a month sits in the direction memo and the tiny-TAM evidence; the coverage scoreboard those conversations move across is defined in Lesson 1.7.

Your one move

Open the coverage board from Lesson 1.7 and compute WPH’s three numbers, honestly, as they stand today. One: how many qualified conversations you’ve actually had year to date. Two: your coverage ratio against the year’s target, gap versus live qualified pipeline. Three: the one-sentence honest gap, in plain words, something like “we are at X times coverage and need Y more qualified conversations to be believable.” Done means: the three numbers exist, written down, even if they’re uncomfortable.

The needle: the math is what makes “two a month” non-negotiable instead of aspirational. When the board reads under three-times coverage, the only fix the numbers will accept is more conversation-causes, never more machine — which is the whole course pointing at one dial.

Want to go further?

Take your weighted board and write both forecasts for the next ninety days: the commit you’d stake your rent on, and the best case if every open conversation breaks your way. Then note the single lever, more conversations, bigger deals, higher win rate, or shorter cycle, that would move your velocity the most right now. Ten minutes.

Terms introduced

Terms introduced in this lesson

• Pipeline coverage ratio
• Sales velocity
• Weighted pipeline

Each term links to the glossary, where it is defined by the way you just used it.

Check

Check yourself

1. A partner asks: "Will you hit the number this year?" What does the professional answer sound like?

   I state a probability from what's actually on the board — here's my commit, here's my best case — never a flat yesI don't know, we'll see how it goesYes, definitely — confidence closes dealsYes, as long as the marketing keeps running

2. You need to close a certain amount of new revenue this year. How much live, qualified pipeline should be on the board to make that believable?

   Ten times the gap, minimum, or it's hopelessRoughly three to four times the gap, because most conversations won't convert and you need coverage for the ones that fall awayAs little as possible, to keep the board cleanExactly the amount you need — one deal per gap

3. The board shows barely enough pipeline to cover the gap — coverage is thin. What's the ONLY real fix?

   Lower the target so the coverage ratio improves on paperCause more qualified conversations — the input the whole board runs onBuild another piece of marketing infrastructureRe-forecast more optimistically so the numbers look better

4. What is sales velocity actually telling you?

   How many emails your team sends per weekHow fast real money moves through the board — live conversations, deal size, and win rate, divided by how long deals takeHow much a deal is worth on averageHow fast your website loads for buyers

Check answers

You can move on when… the three numbers exist, and you can say your coverage ratio out loud without flinching or rounding it up.

Mark this lesson complete

Go deeper

• Lesson 1.7 · The coverage scoreboard — the board these instruments read.
• the direction memo — the two-a-month math in full, and where it comes from.
• Next up: 3.7 · The playbook & the first hire — how you write the motion down so it keeps running when you’re not the one running it.